Tracking newly signed contracts and new listings on the market offers some insight into how sales markets in New York City and the suburbs will behave in 2022.
In 2021, new signed contracts for Manhattan and Brooklyn co-ops, condos, and townhouses outperformed last year, with new listings struggling to keep pace with demand.
As a result bidding wars are increasing, the Covid discount is shrinking, and prices are on the rise in NYC.
In November, for example, new signed contracts for Manhattan co-ops under $500,000 increased by 52.7 percent over November 2020, while new listings for the same price category fell by 15.3 percent, according to the latest edition of the Elliman Report. Manhattan condos priced $500,000 to $999,000 saw new signed contracts increase 21.2 percent, and new listings fall 18 percent in November compared to the same month last year.
"All property types continued their year-over-year rise in newly signed contracts in 2021...[h]owever, new listings growth over the same period was overpowered by demand as it has been for most of the year," says Jonathan Miller, president and CEO of real estate appraisal firm Miller Samuel and author of the report.
In the suburbs around New York City, the lack of available listings remains even more pronounced and is dragging down sales.
The report notes that on Long Island, newly signed contracts for single-family houses and condos have fallen every month since July, on a year-over-year basis, “overpowered by a large drop in new listings over the same period, keeping market supply unusually tight.”
New York City has some runway before the market here resembles the stark patterns seen in the suburbs.
“Limited inventory is holding back suburban sales right now and should not be confused with a lack of demand,” Miller says. “At the current rate of demand, Manhattan likely won’t experience the same extreme level of inventory shortages for another year.”
According to the Elliman Report for the Manhattan sales market in the third quarter, the months of supply, or how long it would take to sell all inventory, was 5.1 months compared to an eye-popping 20.3 months in the third quarter of 2020.
Despite that quick uptake in listings, there were still more apartments on the market than the 10-year average, Miller previously told Brick.
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